Bitcoin Tops $125K Amid ETF Demand, ETH Selling

Bitcoin has surged to fresh record highs, trading above $120,000 and peaking near $125,700 as an "Uptober" rally and price discovery resumed. Market participants attribute the move to seasonal strength, heavy spot‑BTC ETF inflows and institutional buying (including accumulators like MicroStrategy and strong demand for BlackRock’s IBIT), and analysts say that could push BTC toward roughly $135,000 in the coming weeks and support year‑end targets as high as $200,000. Political risk — including a U.S. government shutdown, with prediction markets assigning a meaningful probability it lasts 10–29 days — is being cited as a bullish tailwind toward alternatives to the dollar and Treasurys. Near‑term risks include more than $4.3 billion of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring this week (BTC max‑pain near $115,000) and calendar pressures around monthly and quarterly closes and upcoming ETF decisions. On‑chain dynamics in Ethereum are also notable: the Ethereum Foundation has sold substantial ETH (about 1,000 ETH in a recent sale and roughly 21,000 ETH over three months), which could create short‑term selling pressure around $4,200–$4,600 and amplify volatility. If ETF demand and macro uncertainty persist, further record highs are feasible, but options expiries and concentrated selling could trigger sharp pullbacks.