OPEC+ Nears September Output Hike Amid Global Supply, Demand Concerns

OPEC+ is expected to approve an additional oil production increase of approximately 548,000 barrels per day for September, effectively completing the unwinding of a 2.2 million bpd voluntary cut initiated in previous years. This decision comes amid a complex market environment, marked by potential demand challenges from new US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, including supply disruptions related to Russia and the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite the output hikes, OPEC+ still maintains a separate voluntary cut of about 1.66 million bpd through the end of 2026, with the group likely to pause before adjusting this tranche. Market analysts highlight that while crude prices have held steady, concerns persist about slowing global demand, rising inventories, and the impact of US and EU sanctions affecting Russian oil trade. The group’s strategy reflects a balance between reclaiming market share and managing fragile oil prices, especially given the fiscal needs of major producers like Saudi Arabia. Investors remain cautious, watching closely for how these dynamics will influence actual supply flows and price trajectories in the coming months.