Soybean Futures Rise on US-China Trade Optimism, Weak Dollar

Soybean futures have risen toward $10.50 per bushel, driven by optimism surrounding upcoming US-China trade talks, including a scheduled call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This trade optimism is further supported by a weaker US dollar, which improves the competitiveness of US grains abroad, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, China has yet to significantly increase purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 crop year amid ongoing trade tensions. The US soybean harvest is underway, with about 5% completed and crop conditions rated mostly good or excellent, though some concerns persist due to dry weather affecting yield estimates. Meanwhile, Latin America, particularly Brazil, has strengthened its role as a key global soybean supplier to China, positioning the region strategically amid potential renewed trade conflicts between the US and China. Technical analysis suggests that although soybean prices recently hit highs, there may be a potential short-term pullback into the $10.31 to $10.37 range, rather than a sustained uptrend beyond $10.53 per bushel.