Election Day Seen as 2026 Bellwether

Voters in multiple states are casting ballots in a high-stakes Election Day centered on competitive gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, a New York City mayoral race, and high-profile ballot measures in California that are being viewed as an early test of President Trump’s agenda and a prelude to the 2026 midterms. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has held a polling lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle‑Sears in a race that could elect the state's first woman governor. In New Jersey, Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli remain locked in a close contest shaped by economic worries—housing affordability, education costs and stagnant incomes—and controversies over Sherrill’s military record. Officials reported record early voting and unprecedented campaign spending, and the Justice Department deployed election monitors amid concerns that federal enforcement and immigration activity could affect turnout. National figures, including former President Trump and former President Obama, have campaigned to mobilize voters, and independent voters and turnout are expected to decide several outcomes. Results from the gubernatorial races, the NYC mayoral contest and California’s ballot measures will give both parties a read on momentum heading into 2026.