Bitcoin IPO‑Style Distribution and Drawdown Risk

Analysts say Bitcoin is undergoing an IPO‑style distribution as long‑dormant holders methodically sell into dips while new long‑term investors accumulate, producing consolidation rather than a panic‑driven crash. Bitcoin is trading above $110,000 and buyers have stepped in on pullbacks, but VC Vineet Budki warns a 65–70% drawdown could still occur within two years if less‑informed holders sell under stress. Market voices are split over whether Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle still governs price patterns or whether macro factors now dominate. Sovereign and institutional adoption is advancing with development of “sovereign‑grade” custody frameworks that emphasize governance, multi‑sig and regulatory alignment. At the same time, social‑driven memecoin rallies on chains like Solana show speculative altcoin dynamics remain strong and could be amplified if Bitcoin holds higher levels.