Kazakhstan Oil Output Rises, Revenues Drop Sharply

Kazakhstan's oil production rose by 2% in May to an average of 1.86 million barrels per day, exceeding the country's OPEC+ quota of 1.486 million bpd. The increase is mainly driven by the early expansion of the Chevron-led Tengiz oil field, complicating Kazakhstan's efforts to comply with OPEC+ output limits. Despite pledges to align with OPEC+ and compensate for excess production by 2026, Kazakhstan has prioritized national interests and cited limited control over Western oil majors. OPEC+ has responded by accelerating the return of additional barrels to the market, which has contributed to downward pressure on global oil prices. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's national oil fund revenues have fallen by 43% year-on-year, prompting concerns about the country's fiscal stability. The ongoing situation highlights the difficulties OPEC+ faces in enforcing quotas among members with significant foreign investment.