WTO Chief Reports Largest Global Trade Disruption in 80 Years

The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports a significant decline in the share of global trade conducted under its Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) terms, dropping from about 80% to 72%, marking the largest disruption to international trade rules in 80 years. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala attributes this decline primarily to higher import tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on many trading partners, which has raised concerns about the predictability and stability of the global trading system. Despite these challenges, Okonjo-Iweala highlights signs of resilience, noting that the majority of trade still adheres to WTO rules and emphasizing that this share remains well above 50%. The WTO has revised its global trade growth forecast upward from 0.2% to 0.9% for 2025, driven by an initial surge in trade due to frontloading of goods earlier in the year. However, Okonjo-Iweala warns that the negative effects of tariffs may become more pronounced in 2026 as warehouse inventories deplete and global commerce slows. Overall, while the disruption poses risks, the WTO remains cautiously optimistic about continued, albeit modest, trade growth in the near term.