US, UK Inflation Expectations Ease June May Surveys

In June 2025, U.S. year-ahead inflation expectations sharply declined to 5.1%, down from 6.6% in May, marking the lowest level in three months, while the five-year outlook also fell slightly to 4.1%. Despite this decline, inflation expectations remain above the levels seen in the latter half of 2024, with ongoing concerns about the impact of trade policies and tariffs. In the UK, short-term inflation expectations softened in May 2025, with one-year ahead expectations dropping to around 3.2%, and current inflation assessments falling to approximately 4.7%. The five-year inflation expectations in the UK remained steady at about 3.2%, reflecting a stable medium-term outlook. Surveys indicate that a majority of UK respondents believe rising prices would weaken the economy, and opinions on future interest rate moves are mixed, with some expecting rises and others expecting falls. Overall, both U.S. and UK consumers show some easing in inflation fears, although inflation remains a significant concern in both economies.