Japan’s LDP Loses Upper House Majority Amid Populist Surge

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, suffered a historic defeat in the July 2025 upper house elections, losing its majority for the first time since 2013 and marking the third consecutive electoral setback under Ishiba’s leadership. Key factors behind the LDP’s losses include a weak economy with rising inflation, persistent scandals related to money politics, and a shift of conservative voters toward emerging right-wing populist parties like Sanseito, which advocates policies echoing nationalist movements such as Trump’s "Make America Great Again." The LDP’s campaign focused heavily on past achievements and fiscal responsibility, refusing to support popular opposition proposals like consumption tax cuts, which contributed to a loss of public credibility. Sanseito, a party founded only five years ago with a populist agenda opposing globalism, immigration, and radical gender policies, increased its seats significantly, reflecting a broader populist surge in Japan. The LDP's coalition partner Komeito also lost seats, resulting in the coalition falling three seats short of a majority, raising concerns about political instability, policy gridlock, and potential weakening of Japan’s negotiating position internationally. Internal party dissent is growing, with figures like former Prime Minister Taro Aso publicly opposing Ishiba’s continuation as leader, indicating likely leadership changes ahead.