Kazakhstan Plans $20B Push to Triple Fuel Exports by 2040

Kazakhstan has unveiled a comprehensive 2025-2040 energy strategy aimed at tripling its petroleum product exports from 17 million to 39 million tons annually, increasing the export share to 30% of total refined production. This marks a significant shift from previous policies that limited fuel exports to 10%, focusing instead on expanding refining capacity and sophistication to process more crude domestically and produce higher-value refined products and petrochemicals. The plan includes $20 billion in investments for refining and petrochemical projects, including $5 billion dedicated to the oil and gas chemical sector targeting polymers, fertilizers, and other value-added products. Kazakhstan aims to balance export growth with domestic demand, which is expected to rise 1.5-2% annually due to urbanization and industrial development, while maintaining full self-sufficiency in petroleum products. Key export markets identified are China, India, and neighboring Central Asian countries, with modernization efforts already boosting refining capacity to 17 million tons and refining depth to 89%, targeting 94% by 2040. The government anticipates attracting significant foreign investment leveraging the country’s 30 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, while pilot projects such as refinery digitization will begin implementation in 2025.