IEA: Oil Demand to Peak in 2029

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day in 2029 and decline slightly in 2030, a shift driven by slower economic growth, electric vehicle adoption, and energy transition policies. The US is projected to reach peak oil demand in 2025, with China and the Middle East following by 2027-2028 as these regions move toward renewables and gas. Despite these demand forecasts, global oil production capacity is expected to rise by over 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030, outpacing demand. OPEC's recent output increases have not met planned targets, partly due to member states compensating for past overproduction. OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook on future oil demand compared to the IEA, not anticipating a near-term peak. Geopolitical tensions continue to cause oil price fluctuations, but the IEA believes markets are generally well-supplied and does not anticipate sustained high prices without major disruptions.