Wall Street Traders Expected 10-30% Bonus Increases Amid Market Volatility

Wall Street bonuses are rebounding in 2025, with stock and bond traders leading the gains due to heightened market volatility fueled by tariffs and policy uncertainty. Equity trader bonuses may increase by up to 30%, while fixed-income desks could see a 10% to 20% rise, reflecting record equity trading revenues. Debt underwriting is also outperforming equity underwriting, with bonuses expected to grow 10% to 15% as companies capitalize on refinancing opportunities, whereas equity issuance remains under pressure. Investment bankers' bonuses are forecast to rise modestly by about 5%, as M&A activity and IPOs are recovering but deal closings—and thus payouts—are delayed. Wealth and asset managers might see smaller increases of 2.5% to 7.5%, supported by improving markets and client inflows, while commercial and retail bankers, private equity, and venture capital professionals face flat or declining bonuses amid fundraising struggles and market challenges. Additionally, AI-driven efficiencies are prompting firms to rethink compensation and team sizes, possibly leading to leaner staffs but higher pay for retained employees.