Trump Shortens Russia Ukraine Deal Deadline Raising Global Oil Supply Concerns

US President Donald Trump has given Russia a shortened deadline of around ten days to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, threatening new economic sanctions and secondary tariffs on any countries that continue to purchase Russian crude oil if no agreement is reached. This announcement caused a sharp rise in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which surged over 3.5% in a single day, reflecting fears of constrained global oil supply due to potential restrictions on Russian oil exports. Despite these threats, Russia's Urals crude oil is trading at its narrowest discount relative to benchmark prices since the war began in 2022, indicating that European sanctions have yet to significantly impact Russian oil prices. Market analysts remain uncertain about the feasibility and enforcement of Trump's secondary tariffs, questioning whether such measures would risk higher oil prices domestically or strain relations with key allies like China. The oil market showed some volatility with futures trading marginally lower at times, but overall, prices remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions and recent trade agreements easing broader economic fears. Russian officials have criticized Trump's ultimatum, warning that escalating threats could lead to wider conflict beyond the Russia-Ukraine war.