Fed Live, RBA Holds; Australia Adds Power Subsidy

Global central banks show a mixed outlook: Barclays and Goldman Sachs flagged a possible 25 basis-point Bank of England cut to 3.75% at Thursday’s MPC while most economists still expect a pause at 4%, with the decision hinging on the autumn Budget and sustained disinflation and Governor Andrew Bailey potentially casting a deciding vote. At the Federal Reserve, Governor Lisa Cook said December’s meeting is “live” for a possible cut, emphasized decisions will depend on incoming private and administrative data amid the U.S. government shutdown, and she voted for last week’s 25 basis-point cut while describing policy as modestly restrictive. Standard Chartered’s Fook Hien Yap said Fed cuts could underpin a U.S. “soft landing,” assigning about a 60% probability and supporting equities and gold but noting inflation and trade risks. In Australia the Reserve Bank left the cash rate at 3.60% after a surprise September inflation uptick (trimmed mean 3.0% annually, headline 3.2%), prompting a pause in easing with a still-tight labour market keeping the timing of future cuts uncertain. The RBA hold weighed on the Australian dollar, with AUD/JPY sliding amid speculation of possible Japanese finance ministry intervention, and the Australian government announced a three-hour midday free electricity subsidy from July to shift demand into daytime and aid renewable integration.