Tories expected to lose 500 seats in local elections

The Conservative Party is widely predicted to suffer heavy losses in the upcoming local elections, with leading pollster Lord Robert Hayward forecasting they could lose between 475 and 525 council seats, mostly to Nigel Farage's Reform UK and to a lesser extent the Liberal Democrats. Reform UK is expected to gain around 400 to 450 seats, especially in the Midlands and North, while the Liberal Democrats could make gains of 70 to 80 seats, and the Greens may double their representation with 20 to 40 new councillors. Labour is expected to remain largely steady, gaining some seats from the Conservatives but also losing others to Reform. These projections suggest the Conservatives may lose control of several councils, and the rise of Reform UK complicates traditional party contests. The predicted Tory losses have led to speculation about a potential future pact with Reform UK, a notion Kemi Badenoch has firmly denied, despite contrary remarks from Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick. The local elections are considered hard to forecast due to shifting political dynamics and the emergence of new challengers beyond the main parties.