US Economic Activity Rises Amid Pessimistic Tariff Outlook

Recent U.S. economic data shows a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture. Retail sales exceeded expectations and jobless claims fell, boosting market sentiment, while major global markets mostly traded higher and the U.S. dollar strengthened. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates slight economic growth but highlights elevated uncertainty due to President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which are increasing cost pressures and affecting business hiring decisions. Despite these challenges, a Wall Street Journal survey reveals that economists have grown more optimistic about the U.S. economy, citing stronger job growth, easing inflation, and a reduced recession risk partly due to tariff pauses. Regional manufacturing activity remains subdued amid tariff and tax policy uncertainty, but there is growing optimism that clarity from recent legislation and upcoming trade deadlines will support stronger economic performance in the latter half of the year. Overall, while concerns remain about inflation and trade policies, economic resilience is evident with cautious improvement in various sectors.