China Oil Demand Expected To Peak 2027, US Production Surges

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that China's oil demand will peak in 2027 due to increasing electric vehicle adoption, expansion of high-speed rail, and a shift towards cleaner energy, resulting in a significant slowdown of growth in oil consumption. This trend marks a fundamental transformation in the global energy market, with China having previously driven about 60% of the world's oil demand growth. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production is expected to surge, reaching record levels by 2025, even as domestic consumption remains steady, contributing to a potential global oil surplus. The IEA forecasts that global oil demand will peak around 2029, with supply possibly exceeding demand by over 9 million barrels per day by 2030, which could pressure oil prices unless major producers reduce output. Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, have recently pushed oil prices higher, but the market is expected to remain sufficiently supplied barring major disruptions. These shifts require oil-exporting countries to reconsider their strategies in a changing energy landscape.