AccuWeather Revises Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts, US Impact Risk Persists

Forecasters, including AccuWeather, have slightly reduced their predicted number of named storms and hurricanes for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season due to an unusually quiet period during the climatological peak of tropical activity. The updated forecast now calls for 13 to 16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes, down from earlier estimates of up to 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes, though the expected range of three to six direct U.S. impacts remains unchanged. Experts attribute this lull to factors such as surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, and cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, which have inhibited tropical waves from developing. Despite fewer storms overall, AccuWeather continues to forecast three to five major hurricanes and warns that late-season storms, like Hurricanes Helene and Milton last year, can still cause significant damage, especially with record-high Gulf of Mexico water temperatures fueling rapid intensification. Florida remains at higher-than-average risk for direct impacts, reinforcing the need for vigilance despite the reduced storm count. The next potential named storm is Gabrielle, with a developing system near West Africa having a 30% chance of formation in the coming week.