UK, US Inflation Expected to Rise in July on Food, Tariffs

Inflation trends in July 2025 indicate rising consumer prices in both the U.K. and the U.S., driven largely by increases in food, travel, and tariff-related costs. Barclays projects U.K. consumer price inflation to climb to 3.7% year-over-year, citing higher prices for food, hotels, and motor fuels, with strong contributions from transport and services sectors. In the U.S., core consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by about 0.3%, reflecting tariff-induced price increases on goods like household furnishings and apparel, although lower gasoline prices have moderated overall inflation gains. Despite the inflationary pressures, core services inflation in the U.S. remains relatively stable, and labor market concerns persist amid efforts by companies to limit price hikes to price-sensitive consumers. Financial markets are actively speculating on inflation outcomes, with platforms like Kalshi showing a high probability that U.S. core inflation will exceed 0.2% in July, reflecting investor and trader attention on inflation data ahead of Federal Reserve decisions. Overall, the interplay of tariffs, energy prices, and consumer demand continues to complicate monetary policy outlooks in both countries.