China Industrial Profits Surge in September; Up 3.2% YTD

China’s industrial profits jumped 21.6% year-on-year in September — the second straight monthly gain and the fastest pace since November 2023 after a 20.4% rise in August — lifting year-to-date profits 3.2% through September, official data show. The rebound was led by high‑tech and equipment manufacturing, with private firms’ profits up 5.1% and foreign firms up 4.9%, while state-owned enterprises posted a 0.3% decline; the data cover firms with annual revenue of at least 20 million yuan. Analysts and officials cited Beijing’s policy support, a campaign to curb destructive price wars and easing producer‑price deflation as helping manufacturers amid falling consumer prices and a slowdown to 4.8% GDP growth in Q3. Nomura and other economists warned the sharp month-to-month gains partly reflect a low base and may overstate a sustained recovery in corporate earnings. Exports have been resilient but are expected to slow in Q4 because of a high base and rising global trade barriers, and fixed‑asset investment contracted in the first nine months, underscoring remaining headwinds.