China Military Buildup Erodes US-Japan Deterrence, Conflict Risk Taiwan Strait by 2027

China's rapid military expansion is challenging the longstanding deterrent power of the United States, Japan, and their allies in the Asia-Pacific region, with concerns highlighted by retired U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson about increased tensions around Taiwan and China's broader strategic ambitions. This military growth, alongside China's nuclear arsenal buildup, complicates global nuclear arms control efforts between the U.S., Russia, and China, especially as Russia withdraws from key treaties like New START amid ongoing conflicts. The U.S. government is responding by aiming to quadruple its nuclear energy capacity to support technological advancements, including AI development, which indirectly relates to national security. Despite heightened military competition, some experts argue that exaggerating China’s threat risks unnecessary escalation, emphasizing that U.S. defense spending still significantly exceeds China’s and that an arms race, particularly nuclear, could be catastrophic. Diplomatic engagement with China on global security issues, though often viewed skeptically, is presented by some as essential leadership and a pathway toward addressing shared global challenges. Overall, the situation underscores the delicate balance between maintaining deterrence, pursuing arms control, and fostering dialogue to prevent conflict in an increasingly complex international security environment.